Ole Miss baseball look’s to turn corner in SEC
On Tuesday night Mike Bianco’s Diamond Rebels defeated Southern Miss 6-2. The victory ended a six-game losing streak against the Golden Eagles that stretched back to 2013. It was just the fourth time the Rebels had won the match-up at Trustmark Park in the 11-years the game has been an annual tradition there.
Even more important for the season at large, is the fact that it was the second straight victory for Ole Miss, who is now 22-7 (3-6 SEC) on the season, on the heels of five straight losses.
On Sunday they were able to salvage a game against Mississippi State in Starkville, perhaps capturing momentum necessary to turning around their skid in the last two weekends series.
Now with back-to-back wins over in-state rivals the Rebels will look forward to hosting Arkansas in Oxford this weekend. The series is crucial, but should be a battle, as both teams are desperate to get North of .500 in conference play.
While Ole Miss has faced some major SEC hurdles thus far their schedule provides some winnable series coming up. The Razorbacks are coming off a series loss to Missouri, which isn’t quite as bad as some might think, however it still shows obvious vulnerability, especially on the road.
Auburn comes to Oxford in two weeks and later this season Kentucky will be in town. Even though, they face Georgia on the road, it seems likely they can go take two of three from the Bulldogs of the East. Avoiding Florida and Vanderbilt is certainly an advantage the Rebels have in scheduling this season, as its getting LSU at home. Although a trip to Tuscaloosa isn’t daunting, and is certainly winnable, the final weekend in College Station will be a tall chore.
The Rebels opened eyes with their 20-2 start to the season. It lofted them comfortably into the top 10 in all major college baseball polls. However, their 2-7 record in the nine games since then has shined a bright light on some weak spots this roster has.
Or you could at least call them soft spots, with a chance to firm up. A 19-1 non-conference record, with the only loss being to Brendan McKay and Louisville, certainly helps inflate the overall record.
Sure, the 3-6 SEC mark should improve, but it won’t be an easy task to get back over .500 comfortably and stay there if the same team continues to show up on the weekends. On the flip side, after struggling in recent seasons with midweek, head-scratching losses, they have turned things around on that front.
On the back of freshman James McArthur, who just won his fourth straight start on Tuesday night, the Rebels are 8-0 in midweeks games so far in 2016.
Starting pitching not going deep consistently, faltering in league play; Bullpen carrying big load while being dominant
With the way the starting pitchers have performed in SEC play, it is not surprising that Bianco has indicated he will make one to two changes to the weekend rotation. In three SEC starts Friday night starter Brady Bramlett has struck out 17 batters in 15.1 innings of work, while giving up 18 hits and allowing 7 earned runs. Saturday starter, and first-year junior college transfer, Chad Smith, has surrendered 19 hits in his 10.2 innings of work in three conference starts.
Additionally, he’s been responsible for 10 earned runs as well as allowing 10 free passes. In the Sunday role Bianco has used a combination of two starts from Sean Johnson and one from true freshman Andy Pagnozzi. The two have combined to allow five earned runs on 13 hits in 9.1 innings of work, also passing out seven walks. Pagnozzi provided the longest of the three Sunday starts, tossing 3.1 innings against South Carolina.
In fact, only five times this season has the starting pitcher gone six innings or more for the Rebels, four prior to McArthur doing so the other night.
With the starters not sticking around, obviously the bullpen has seen it’s fair share of work. In fact, it’s fair to say the pen has been stretched and stressed to this point in the season. So far, they have proven easily good enough to bare the load.
That load have been largely placed on the arms of five guys, some who have experience and some who are earning it on-the-go. Freshman Dallas Woolfolk has appeared in nine games, throwing a total of 9.1 innings.
Then there’s Brady Feigl, who’s coming off an injury last season, who’s thrown 21 innings in 11 appearances. Sophomore Will Stokes has taken a step forward this season in his 15.1 innings of work over 12 appearances. Lefty stoppers Wyatt Short and David Parkinson have totaled 20 innings over nine appearances and 13 appearances equalling to 19.1 innings, respectively. Short is a conceivable option to move into the weekend starting mix, as are Feigl and Stokes.
Success has come with early scoring; key offensive pieces struggling; inefficiency on defense, base-paths
Getting off to a good starts has paid off this season, as the Rebels are 14-3 when they score first and 13-2 after scoring in the first inning. When they get up early and are able to get six innings from their starting pitcher, they are pretty hard to beat.
They are 20-0 when leading after six innings, and just 1-7 when they trail after six. Recent struggles can be attributed to run production from the offense. Simply put, their 3.8 runs per game in SEC play isn’t going to cut it, especially considering they are 3-7(0-6) this season when scoring five runs or less.
Conversely, their record is 19-0 when scoring six or more runs, which obviously they have done only three times in their first nine conference games. Additionally, they are 14-1 when hitting at least one home run and 8-6 when they do not leave the yard.
The offensive leaps made by Henri Lartigue and Tate Blackman have been bright spots for the Rebel lineup. Lartigue is hitting .337, having driven in 12 runs and currently sitting third on the team with 29 hits.
Blackman, who is tied for the team lead with 33 hits, also hitting .337, has driven in 23 runs. Colby Bortles is fourth on the team with 28 hits and while he is hitting under .300, currently .292, he has driven in a team-high 25 runs. Woodman, tied with Blackman at 33 hits, also leads the team in total bases with 53 and home runs with four.
However, Bortles has been struck out 25 times this season, with Woodman right behind at 21 Ks. Furthermore, five guys who were expected to contribute this season have underwhelmed to this point in the year. Connor Cloyd, who spent significant time as the leadoff hitter in 2015, is hitting .244 in 49 at-bats.
Additionally, the opening day starter at designated hitter, Holt Perdzock, is hitting a mere .256 in 43 at-bats. Everyday starters Will Golsan and Errol Robinson are hitting .243 in 107 at-bats and .220 in 109 at-bats, respectively.
Lastly, though he is tied for the team-lead in long balls, Cameron Dishon 67 at-bats have only seen him hit .224. While it is certainly conceivable that Golsan, Robinson and Cloyd, will get things back on track, and Dishon certainly brings positives to the table, other options are available for Bianco on the bench. Such as true freshman utility man Ryan Olenek and redshirt freshman infielder Michael Fitzsimmons.
The time has likely come that we will see Bianco become more aggressive when the opportunity presents itself. That means increasing the stolen base attempts and getting guys moving. Part of that includes getting his fast guys like Dishon, Golsan, Robinson and Cloyd on base more. Thus far the Rebels are 21-34 on stolen bases this season.
Certainly there is no excuse for Ole Miss to be fielding at a .969 clip, which ranks 94-th in Division-1 college baseball. Bortles is good at third and we all know how good Robinson is, and he’s been even better this season. Golsan was a middle-infielder and now he’s been moved to first, so you would thing the infield is top-notch.
Meanwhile Dishon and Woodman are impressive in the outfield, so has been Kyle Watson. The Rebels will need to be more sure-handed on defense going forward to help their starting pitchers and their entire staff.
Without question this Ole Miss team is talented, but there’s also no question there are areas they must improve and fix. This weekend they have a chance to get on the right side of things in conference play. It is crucial that they do so, because everything they want to accomplish is still in front of them for the taking. First pitch on Friday is at 6:30.