Why Ole Miss will be better on offense in 2016: Part Two
This is part two of a two-part series detailing two separate reasons why the Ole Miss offensive unit will be better in 2016 than it has been in Hugh Freeze’s tenure. Senior quarterback Chad Kelly will be the focus of part two.
Chad Kelly has been responsible for a lot of firsts since arriving in Oxford. Next season he hopes to be the first signal caller to lead the Rebels to Atlanta to play for the SEC championship. Sure, solid defensive play will serve as a prerequisite in accomplishing that feat, but so will an explosive offense.
And explosive is sort of Kelly’s thing. In 2015 he guided the offense to 40 or more points in six games, with four games of 50 or more and two games of 70 or more. For goodness sakes, the 43 points he and the offense put up against Alabama were the most they had allowed all season.
In a league where offense is beginning to take over, he tallied the most passing yards and touchdowns, and in the conference known for it’s vaunted defenses, he stood out. After spurning the NFL Draft, Kelly is back to do it all over again, and this time my bet is that he’ll do it even better.
Though it will be a tall task to top 4,542 total yards and the 41 touchdowns he was responsible for a season ago, there are reasons to believe he will. Even without his starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil and go-to pass catcher Laquon Treadwell from last year’s club that went 10-3.
Due in large part to what I wrote about in part one, an improvement along the offensive line, despite the absence of Tunsil. A deeper and seemingly more formidable stable of running backs could also benefit Kelly, who shouldered a load of the responsibilities in that area in 2015.
He rushed for 500 net yards and 10 scores, more than occasionally taking hits that likely gave Hugh Freeze heartburn. Another key factor that will help Kelly is that fellow senior Evan Engram is also returning and should provide that feel-good safety option on third downs.
Then there’s what I like to refer to as the “Kelly effect.” It happened to the Ole Miss offense last season and there’s no reason to believe it won’t again this season. Simply put, once he arrives things are better than they were before.
Just look at some numbers posted by three-starter Bo Wallace in Freeze’s first three seasons:
2012
2,994 passing yards – 63.9 completion percentage – 22 passing TDs/17 INTs – 142.7 passer efficiency – 230.3 passing yards per game
2013
3,346 passing yards – 64.8 completion percentage – 18 passing TDs/10 INTS – 138.1 passer efficiency – 257.4 passing yards per game
2014
3,194 passing yards – 60.1 completion percentage – 22 passing TDs/14 INTs – 142.2 passer efficiency – 245.7 passing yards per game
Compared to Kelly’s 2015 season numbers in those same categories…
4,042 passing yards – 65.1 completion percentage – 31 passing TDs/13 INTS – 155.9 passer efficiency – 310.9 passing yards per game
Take Wallace’s best number in each category from his three seasons(39 starts) and he only beats Kelly in one area, interceptions. Kelly’s 13 picks came on 458 attempted passes last season, while Wallace attempted 437 passes in 2013(his career high) and only threw 10 interceptions.
The number was a bit of anomaly for the turnover-proned Wallace, but he did throw 13 less touchdowns that season than Kelly did in 2015.
If there is a knock on Kelly, it is the number of interceptions he threw last year, especially prior to game nine against Arkansas. In the final four games of the season, including the bowl win against Oklahoma State, he only threw one pick.
That momentum is likely to carry into next season as Kelly will be a year smarter in Freeze’s offense. Not to mention Kelly, due to diligent film study and hard work, is type of player who just seems to get better and better with each passing year.
Better offensive line? check. Evan Engram playing the alpha dog role plus a deeper and more talented receiver corps across the board? check. Chad Kelly coming back? check.
With those ingredients in place, the Ole Miss offense will be better this fall than it has been in the Freeze/#NewNormal era, take it to the bank.