The preseason predictions and projections are being released for 2018 and once again Athlon doesn’t show Ole Miss football any love.
Waiting for a prescription to be filled at my local H.E.B. (it’s a Texas thing), I picked up a copy of Athlon’s college football preview. The magazines predictions for how things will go for Ole Miss in 2018 will not thrill many in the Rebel nation. Athlon’s says Matt Luke’s first season as a full-time coach will result in a 5-7 record, with just a single win in conference play (1-7).
For those hoping that one SEC win will be against Mississippi State, two things; one, the math for Athlon’s predictions doesn’t allow for that, so likely the magazine thinks we’ll either beat Arkansas or Vanderbilt for our one lone conference victory – or they didn’t think it through, and two beating M$U doesn’t make a 1-7 record any sweeter so dissolve that mindset.
The magazine rag, believes the offense will be explosive. However not enough to overcome a porous defense, particularly against the run. While some that work at OleHottyToddy.com believe this seriously underestimates the Rebels, unfortunately in predicting a sixth place finish in the SEC West I believe Athlon presents a question more difficult to solve than the Ole Miss defense will be for opposing offenses; can the offense out-score what the Rebel D will allow?
Not Everyone Agrees
When I posted a link to the prediction on most disagreed with Athlon’s assessment,
Should've been 9-3 last year as a best case scenario and got better with the last 3-5 games. We more or less added depth with the recruiting class
— Coley Conner (@c_con88) June 12, 2018
While a few, seasoned, Ole Miss fans agreed.
4-8, 0-8
— Linda Timbes (@TimbesLinda) June 12, 2018
Hard To Disagree
Ole Miss Rebels Football
With Athlon’s general theme on the Rebels of 2018 it’s hard to disagree. The offense should be explosive and capable of putting points on the board. It certainly picked up last season when Jordan Ta’amu replaced Shea Patterson. Partly because there was a much-needed change in strategy. Partly because Ta’amu was simply better at running the offense than was Patterson.
Athlon’s doesn’t think much of the Ole Miss defense, and why should they. If that was a Landshark effort in ’17, it was the most un-intimidating shark since Chevy Chase invented the breed on Saturday Night Live in 1975. On paper the defense looks less talented and Wesley McGriff didn’t exactly inspire comparisons to Bill Belechick in his first season as coordinator.
It’s What We Choose To Believe
How successful you believe the Rebels will be this season, as Athlon surmises, comes down to your belief in the offense being capable to out-score what a bad defense will allow. A defense which played to mixed results (6-6) in ’17 or a belief that the defense will be drastically improved.
It’s college football, where anything can happen. In 1991 Ole Miss ranked 83rd in rushing defense, then Joe Lee Dunn arrived. The Rebels improved to third in rushing defense in ’92. Can the “Crime Dog” orchestrate that type of improvement in 2018?
If so, 9-3 will be a slam dunk, if not….