Why Ole Miss football has a lower chance of making the playoffs than eight other SEC schools

Playoffs or bust, that's the narrative surrounding Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin and the team heading into the 2024 season. Every analyst I've seen has predicted the Rebels to do just that, making the College Football Playoffs for the first time, thanks to the new 12-team layout.

The ESPN College FPI (Football Power Index) gives Ole Miss a lower percentage chance of making the playoffs than eight other SEC schools. They are 18th on the list of teams with the highest chance of making the playoffs, with a 20.7% chance.

The ESPN College FPI (Football Power Index) gives Ole Miss a lower percentage chance of making the playoffs than eight other SEC schools. They are 18th on the list of teams with the highest chance of making the playoffs, with a 20.7% chance. The FPI projects a team's win and loss record for the season, considering results to date and FPI-projected results for the upcoming schedule.

The Rebels are projected to have as many as 7.9 wins and 4.2 losses, which is way down on Vegas's 9.5 win/loss record. The index also measures a team's true strength on a net point scale: expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field.

All these compiled measurements are great. However, they can hide that a team has a much-improved chance of having a better season despite past results. Ole Miss is coming off an 11-win season. However, the FPI will consider that the Rebels haven't won in Baton Rouge since 2008 and have only won one of their last 12 games against Georgia.

With the roster Ole Miss has put together for this season, they have a good chance of turning the tables on at least one of those poor records. Most of these measurements end up being about right. However, a few teams end up being lower or higher than the ESPN FPI anticipates. Just ask the second-best team in college football in 2023, the Washington Huskies.