Ole Miss Rebels, following their sweep of the Missouri Tigers and 7-5 victory against the Memphis Tigers in the midweek, will remain inside the friendly confines of Swayze Field for the third weekend of SEC play, taking on the Florida Gators. This series will be on Thursday through Saturday. The first pitch on Thursday will be at 7:00 PM CT, the first nationally televised game for the Rebels this season on ESPN U. Friday will start at 6:30, and the first pitch on Saturday afternoon at 1:30, available from streaming through SEC Network Plus.
This is a critical weekend for both teams, even more so for the Gators. The Gators, who came into the season ranked number 7th in the nation following back-to-back College World Series appearances. However, this season, especially the SEC season, has not gone well for the Gators, and they will enter Swayze Field in search of a massive weekend. They are 0-6 so far in the SEC, but those sweeps come at the hands of two of the better teams in the league, Tennessee and Georgia. The Gators also dropped a game in the midweek to Florida State, putting them on a four-game losing skid coming into the weekend.
That means the Rebels will get a desperate Gator team that I think has a more talented team than they have shown. However, this team is not firing on all cylinders, particularly in the pitching department. The Rebels have a big opportunity to pick up a series victory this weekend and put themselves in a really good position math-wise for the rest of the season.
The Rebels will run out the same three starters in the same order they have every weekend this season. Hunter Elliott will pitch tonight, Maddox will pitch on Friday, and Nichols will pitch on Saturday. This is a big weekend for Maddox, who has struggled to begin SEC play.
Friday night, I think, is the critical matchup in this series. The Gators' starters have struggled to find their footing, but their ace, Sophomore Liam Peterson, is returning from injury. He has a 2.16 ERA, 42 strikeouts, and is yet to allow a home run in his 25 innings. His performance on Friday against Elliott will be one to watch, and I think the Gators must take this one if they want to win the series.
We will most likely see Freshman Aidan King throw for the Gators on Friday. He has been excellent this season at limiting walks, and he was really against the Vols, only allowing one run in his six innings. However, as the Friday night starter last weekend, King only made it four innings and allowed five runs on six hits against the Bulldogs. He is a much less powerful pitcher than Peterson, and I think there is a solid opportunity for the Rebels' lineup to get after him. The key to the Friday game will be Riley Maddox; he just needs to perform better and give you five innings of solid work.
The Saturday starter for the Gators doesn't seem to be set in stone. This season, they have thrown Jake Clemente or Billy Barlow in the last weekend slots. Neither of these guys has been able to go deep into the game, not providing much beyond three innings. The Gators operated on a by-committee approach on Sundays. Barlow and Clemente both have ERAs over five this season. I think this provides a significant advantage for the Rebels. The Gators bullpen is thin outside of Luke McNeillie. Suppose they can make them go deep early in the series and chase the starter early in this one, advantage Rebs. Nichols needs to provide a solid outing again this weekend.
The key for Ole Miss will be the offense. The Rebels put up 40 runs last weekend in Columbia, and the Georgia Bulldogs managed to put up 40 runs against the Gators. The Rebels will need to replicate, at least partially, their offensive success.
The Gators pack a punch on the offensive side, which gives worry considering the weaknesses of the Rebels' bullpen. The Gators have three batters who are one dotting. Colby Shelton, Brody Donay, Brendan Lawson, and . Donay lead the way with a 1.251 OPS and eight home runs. You also have Bobby Boser with eight home runs as well. They also are strong 1-9; amongst their regular starters, all 9 have an OPS above .750
This weekend is massive for both teams. In the Gators' case, they are competing for their season; if they drop to 1-8 or 0-9 in the SEC, their chances of climbing out of that hole are incredibly slim. For the Rebels, if they can knock off a preseason favorite and improve their SEC record to 6-3 or 7-2, they will put themselves right in the mix of the SEC race and set the math in their favor for, at the least, returning to the postseason.
Things get started tonight on ESPNU and the Rebels are favored
The lines has the Rebles at -160 on the Money Line. the Run Line is -1.5, at +105.
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