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Ole Miss Baseball: Rebels Get Auburn Sweep, Now On To T-town

By Philip Westmoreland

Omaha, NE - JUNE 26: Baseball fans gather outside TD Ameritrade Park prior to game one of the College World Series Championship Series, between the LSU Tigers and the Florida Gators on June 26, 2017 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
Omaha, NE - JUNE 26: Baseball fans gather outside TD Ameritrade Park prior to game one of the College World Series Championship Series, between the LSU Tigers and the Florida Gators on June 26, 2017 in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) /
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Ole Miss baseball is coming off a very impressive SEC series sweep over  a good Top 25 Auburn team this past weekend and now they have Bama.

Ole Miss took their first SEC series sweep of the season in impressive fashion over the weekend. That does seem somewhat odd for a top 10 team. However, that is just the way it is in baseball in the SEC. Take away the top 4 teams and you have 7 teams within 3 games of each other going into the last weekend. Still, the Rebels did it in impressive fashion.

In particular roughing up the Tigers star pitcher Casey Mize. This after Auburn tried the classic sandbagging technique by pitching their 3rd starter in the 1st position hoping to get an advantage in games 2 and 3.  Brady Feigl, Will Ethridge and bats which couldn’t be stopped overcame that strategy. Of course, Ryan Rolison and Parker Caracci had something to say in the sweep as well.

Need to Close Strong

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Now the Rebels look to close their season out with a winning road series. This is something that has been elusive for the Rebels this season in SEC play.  Since beating Texas A&M 2 out of 3 in College Station during the first SEC road weekend the Rebels have not managed to take a road SEC series.   This only modestly affected their place in the important top 8.

Alabama might seem like a likely place to get a road series win in the SEC. They are firmly in last place in the SEC.  With only 7 wins there is no chance that they will make even the SEC tournament.  However, they do have 2 series wins against Missouri on the road and a top 20 Kentucky team in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year. They have also been in a lot of close games recently including winning 1 out of 3 in Baton Rouge on Saturday after blowing a big lead in the Friday game.

Rebels Face Two Good Starters

The first 2 weekend game starters are both solid veterans. Junior Sam Finnerty gets the 1st game call. He holds a respectable ERA of 4.43 and a 4-3 record. Jake Walters gets the 2nd game call. He is a Senior who had been a long time starter.  He holds an even more respectable 4.19 ERA with a 3-5 record.  The coaches seem to stick with both pitchers for quite a while so expect both to get somewhere close to 90 or more pitches unless they are really getting slammed.

The game 3 starter has been Garrett Rukes but they really pitch by committee on the 3rd weekend game. Rukes has not gone longer than 3 innings in the last 5 weeks. Of the 7 conference victories 3 have come in game 1 and 3 in game 2.  Their relief pitching in general is also by committee.

Tide’s Plate Struggles

The Tide don’t bring any .300 hitters to the regular starting lineup. Junior Cobie Vance leads off and plays 3rd base. He now holds the best average at .297, most runs scored at 40 and a .439 slugging percentage which is second best on the team. He also has 6 home runs which is second best on the team and most for any player currently in the starting lineup.

An Eye on Arkansas at Georgia

The Arkansas at Georgia series will be the other series that has the most immediate impact on the Rebels seed for the SEC tournament. (It could also make a difference in NCAA seeding.) The Rebels have a magic number of 4 for the weekend versus Arkansas to lock up the 2 seed. Any combination of Rebels wins and Razorback losses totaling 4 will put the Rebels at number 2 for the tournament.

If this happens nothing else matters because the Rebels will get the automatic 2 seed by winning the west.  If the magic number of 4 doesn’t happen it gets more complicated and there might even be a situation in which Rebel fans could be pulling for Arkansas on Saturday.  Although this seems unlikely.

Two Other Key Series

The Texas A&M versus South Carolina series could have an impact on the Rebels seeding if they struggle against Alabama.  South Carolina has a head to head tie breaker for the 3rd or 4th spot.  LSU at Auburn also has a long shot chance of impacting the Rebels.

Rebels  Hold Their Own Fate

If the Rebels take care of business against Alabama Ole Miss will get a top 4 seed.  A sweep insures a 2 if Arkansas loses once and a 3 if Arkansas sweeps Georgia.  Winning 2 out of 3 would insure a 2 seed if Arkansas loses 2 and most likely a 3 seed even if Arkansas wins 2 out of 3.  The only way they would not get a 3 in that case would be if South Carolina were to sweep Texas A&M in College Station.  In that case they would get a 4 seed and still a bye in the first round.

Next: Better Than Expected...

So, if the Rebels show up and take care of business we should be watching a game Tuesday to see who we will be playing on Wednesday in the SEC Tourney.

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